Amazin' Daily Briefing: January 29th, 2025

Bold Predictions for Francisco Alvarez in 2025: A Breakout Season in the Making

As we eagerly approach Opening Day for the 2025 season, we're kicking off an exciting series here at The Shea Scoop - Bold Predictions for Every Mets Player. This series will delve into the potential breakthroughs, surprises, and standout performances from each member of the New York Mets' active roster. We start with a deep dive into Francisco Alvarez's anticipated breakout year,. At just 23 years old, Alvarez has already shown flashes of brilliance that hint at a potentially historic season. Let's dive into the data and recent trends to make some bold predictions for this rising star.

Offensive Surge:

In 2024, Alvarez's offensive stats showed a .237/.307/.403 slash line with 11 home runs in 100 games, which was a step back from his rookie season's 25 homers. However, his advanced stats tell a more nuanced story. His xwOBA was at the 17th percentile, and his xBA and xSLG were at the 11th and 21st percentiles respectively, suggesting there's room for growth. Despite these lower rankings, Alvarez's hard-hit percentage was in the 62nd percentile, indicating he possesses significant power.

Prediction: Alvarez is poised for a breakout offensive year in 2025. With a full season under his belt and the maturity that comes with experience, I predict Alvarez will elevate his game, hitting .260/.330/.470 with 30 home runs. His walk rate, which was already in the 61st percentile, should continue to improve, bolstering his on-base percentage. As noted by a report from MLB.com, "Alvarez should be among the leaders in homers from catchers, just make sure you can absorb his low average". The Mets' lineup, potentially bolstered by the likes of Juan Soto, should provide Alvarez with better protection, leading to more RBI opportunities, predicting around 85 RBIs for the season.

Defensive Mastery:

Defensively, Alvarez's 2024 season was marked by exceptional framing skills, ranking in the 88th percentile. His pop time was also impressive, in the 83rd percentile, showing his quickness behind the plate. However, his blocking was a weak point, at the 2nd percentile, and his ability to throw out base stealers was average, at the 52nd percentile.

Prediction: Alvarez's defensive game is expected to see significant improvement in 2025. With dedicated training and the guidance of seasoned coaches, I foresee Alvarez enhancing his blocking skills, moving up to at least the 25th percentile, which will reduce passed balls and wild pitches. His framing will remain elite, potentially reaching the 90th percentile, making him one of the best in the league at getting calls from umpires. His arm strength and throwing accuracy, combined with a better understanding of baserunner tendencies, should push his caught stealing above average into the top 60th percentile. According to Baseball America, "Alvarez has work to do behind the plate," but his framing and receiving skills are already well-regarded.

Leadership and Consistency:

Alvarez's journey from Venezuela to the MLB has been marked by a strong work ethic and leadership qualities, which were highlighted in various reports. His ability to conduct live television interviews in English by 2024 shows his commitment to personal growth, which translates well to his on-field performance.

Prediction: In 2025, Alvarez will not only be a statistical leader but also a vocal leader in the Mets' clubhouse. His maturity and experience will shine through, providing stability behind the plate. Expect Alvarez to play in over 130 games, showcasing consistency and durability, something crucial for a catcher. His presence will be a calming influence on the pitching staff, potentially leading to lower ERAs for Mets pitchers due to his excellent pitch-calling and framing abilities. As MLB.com pointed out, "Often lauded for his work ethic, Alvarez still has a chance to be one of the game’s top offensive catchers", which also hints at his potential leadership role.

With the blend of his youth, raw talent, and the experience he's gaining, Alvarez is set to become one of the league's premier catchers. His offensive numbers are expected to soar, his defense to refine, and his leadership to solidify. Keep your eyes on Francisco Alvarez; 2025 could very well be his year to shine.

Stay tuned as we roll out predictions for each player, offering insights into what could be one of the most thrilling seasons for Mets fans. From the pitching staff's potential to dominate to the versatility in the infield and outfield, we'll explore how each player might contribute to the team's success. Don't miss out; follow along for exclusive analysis, bold forecasts, and perhaps a glimpse into the future stars of baseball with the New York Mets.

Trivia Question of The Day:

Which Mets player hit the team's first-ever home run in World Series history?

Leave a comment with your answer and subscribe. The answer will be posted in tomorrow's Amazin' Daily Briefing!

On This Day in Mets History

Born on This Date:

• Sergio Ferrer (1951)
• Kevin Roberson (1968)

Transactions:

• January 29, 2004 – New York Mets signed free agent Shane Spencer.
• January 29, 2013 – New York Mets signed free agent Scott Atchison from the Boston Red Sox.
• January 29, 2021 – Detroit Tigers signed Wilson Ramos from the New York Mets as a free agent.

Random Player Spotlight

Timo Perez

Born: April 8, 1975 Bani, Dominican Republic

First Mets game: September 1, 2000
Last Mets game: September 26, 2003

372 Games. 121 Runs, 114 RBIs, 18 HR, 19 SB, .276 avg.

Also played for:

• Chicago White Sox 2004, 2005
• St. Louis Cardinals 2006
• Detroit Tigers 2007

Signed with New York Mets as a free agent on March 17, 2000.

Traded by the New York Mets to the Chicago White Sox in exchange for Matt Ginter on March 27, 2004.

January 28th Trivia Answer

Jim Hickman became the first Met to hit for the cycle in August 1963 at the Polo Grounds, leading the team to a 7-3 victory over the Cardinals and Ernie Broglio. It was a rare highlight for the struggling franchise in its early years. Hickman later made his mark in the 1970 All-Star Game as a member of the Cubs, delivering the single that led to Pete Rose’s infamous collision with Ray Fosse at home plate.

Jim Hickman also made Mets history as the first player to hit three home runs in a single game and the last to send one over the fence at the legendary Polo Grounds.

Leave a comment with your answer and subscribe. The answer will be posted in tomorrow's Amazin' Daily Briefing!