Pete Alonso: A Consistent Powerhouse, Not a Player in Regression

In the world of Major League Baseball, narratives can sometimes overshadow reality, especially when it comes to star players like Pete Alonso. While some have argued that Alonso is regressing, the data tells a different story. Examining his performance from 2019 to 2024, it becomes clear that Alonso has been a model of consistency, particularly in metrics that matter most for a power hitter.

Barrel Percentage (Barrel %): A Cut Above the Rest

From his rookie year in 2019 through the 2024 season, Pete Alonso has maintained a barrel percentage between 12.3% and 15.8%, far exceeding the MLB average of 7.0% over the same period. This metric measures the quality of contact, specifically how often a hitter squares up the ball for maximum impact. Alonso’s ability to consistently barrel the ball is a testament to his elite power-hitting capabilities.

Barrels per Plate Appearance (Barrel/PA): Elite Contact Opportunities

Alonso's barrels per plate appearance have ranged from 8.6% to 10.2%, well above the MLB average of 4.8%. This statistic highlights how frequently he generates high-quality contact relative to his opportunities. It’s a clear indicator that his ability to drive the ball hard hasn’t faltered. In this regard, Alonso’s consistency mirrors that of David Ortiz, who maintained elite hard-contact rates throughout his career, even in his later seasons.

Exit Velocity: Power That Persists

Exit velocity is another area where Alonso remains consistent. His average exit velocity has remained high, ranging from 89.5 mph to 91.0 mph, compared to the MLB average of 88.5 mph. Moreover, his max exit velocity has consistently exceeded 115 mph, peaking at 118.4 mph, which places him among the league’s most formidable sluggers. These metrics demonstrate that Alonso’s raw power has stayed intact.

Launch Angle: Optimal for Power

Launch angle is a crucial factor for power hitters, and Alonso’s has ranged between 14.7° and 18.2°, which is ideal for hitting home runs. This consistency shows that Alonso hasn’t lost his ability to lift the ball effectively, a key component of his slugging prowess.

Expected Stats (xBA, xSLG, wOBA, xwOBA, xwOBACON): Sustained Excellence

Pete Alonso’s expected stats further dispel any notion of regression:

• xBA (Expected Batting Average): Ranging from .253 to .271, Alonso’s expected batting average is well above the MLB average of .245.
• xSLG (Expected Slugging Percentage): His xSLG has been between .463 and .561, significantly higher than the league average of .405, emphasizing his sustained power output.
• wOBA (Weighted On-Base Average): Alonso’s wOBA has ranged from .340 to .384, while his xwOBA (expected wOBA) has been between .330 and .383. These figures underscore his consistent offensive contribution.
• xwOBACON (xwOBA on Contact): With values from .403 to .482, Alonso remains a standout when it comes to making impactful contact.

Hard Hit %: Relentless Power

Alonso’s hard-hit rate—the percentage of batted balls hit at 95 mph or higher—has been consistently high, ranging from 40.1% to 44.7%, well above the MLB average of 36.5%. This metric further validates his continued ability to generate hard contact.

Strikeout Rate (K%) and Barrel/Batted Ball % (BB %): Well-Managed Trade-Offs

Power hitters often come with high strikeout rates, but Alonso’s have remained stable, varying between 18.7% and 26.4%, without a clear trend of increase. His Barrel/Batted Ball % has stayed strong, ranging from 8.8% to 10.4%, again above the league average. These metrics show that Alonso has managed to balance his approach without sacrificing his strengths.

Challenging the Regression Narrative

The data paints a picture of a player who has been remarkably consistent in key metrics over the years. Pete Alonso’s power, contact quality, and expected stats remain elite, placing him among the game’s most reliable power hitters. Rather than regressing, Alonso has maintained his position as a cornerstone of the New York Mets’ lineup, proving that the popular narrative of decline is unfounded.

For Mets fans and baseball analysts alike, it’s time to recognize Alonso not as a player in decline, but as a consistent powerhouse who continues to deliver at an elite level. The numbers don’t lie.